There have arguably never before been this many close polling averages across this many different places and races in a federal election. It’s a situation that calls for nuance and discernment—both good-faith but anxious allies, and bad-faith misinformation peddlers, spread messages of panic and alarm. So hear us out: Anyone who indicates that MAGA extremists have the clear momentum right now, is making an overdetermined claim—and yet, the same is also true for anyone who is overconfident and thinks the progressive outcome is in the bag. We have to keep fighting for the world we want to live in. Ultimately, the results we see after Election Day will reveal which of several plausible, competing narratives about the campaign are true.

There are three key areas in which we see examples of these competing narratives: the ground game, early voting, and current polling methodologies.

Ground Game and Field: It can be difficult to know exactly what’s impactful on the ground. Is Elon Musk’s million dollar (and self-evidently illegal!) lottery payout scheme really leading to increased Republican turnout? Or just fraud? There have been some news reports suggesting that paid helpers have been falsifying tens of thousands of door-knocks.

The good news is that Harris appears to be orchestrating the largest grassroots mobilization effort at least since the Obama campaign in 2008. This ground game—comprising canvassing, get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts, and more—is crucial. Grassroots engagement can make a significant difference, so it’s vital to remain proactive.

Early Voting and Voter Registration: As voter registration draws to a close, millions of new voters have been added to the rolls, including a whole generation of new, climate- and democracy-supporting young voters. At the same time, Republican voter registration is up in swing states in particular. Republican early voting is up too—now that Trump isn’t calling it a fraud—reducing the massive advantage Democrats showed in 2020 presidential early voting. In Nevada, there is nearly parity, reducing past Dem advantage in this way. But at the end of the day, record-breaking turnout still favors Dems in key states like Georgia and North Carolina, and others where climate-fueled hurricanes may have disproportionately affected Republican counties.

When people say that the two main strategies for victory are “about the Blue Wall states versus the Sun Belt states”, we can now say that this is an oversimplification. It is looking increasingly like some of the patterns and factors at work in Arizona and Nevada, are different than those in Georgia and North Carolina. And every state has their own particular factors at stake.

Polling Methodologies: Polls show an incredibly close race, and perhaps one that has shifted from August and September when Harris was creeping ahead in the Presidential race, to one stagnant and too close to call. But it’s worth noting that predictions, again, are overdetermining what we can say with what we know: all presidential race polls in swing states are within the margin of error.

There’s a possibility that good-faith pollsters have cause to systematically overcompensate their samples and models in favor of Trump, due to a fear of underreporting support for him as outlets have done in past cycles. This may be an overcompensation, and the real results may turn out to be better! We also cannot overlook the impact of bad faith polling. There are more explicitly conservative pollsters in this election cycle who are deliberately producing poor poll methodologies with inflated conservative results, a strategy to create a shift in the zeitgeist and sow uncertainty.

Finally, we have to consider a reverse Wilder Effect (or Bradley Effect) in relation to the Dobbs Supreme Court decision revoking abortion rights. In many special elections over the past year, polls underestimated the number of women in conservative households, in particular, who voted for Democrats, either because they made up their mind in the voting booth or did not feel comfortable speaking publicly about their vote.

Until this point, the media and even many mainstream politicians have been unwilling to call it like it is. But in the past week, we’ve finally seen prominent leaders describe Trump correctly as an overt fascist. We’ve heard more about how his own staff and colleagues who he’s hired in the past don’t like or trust him, and his evident mental illness and cognitive decline.

We really won’t know if we’re up, down, or on a razor’s edge, until the results come in. It comes down to canvassing and our ground game. That’s why we’re sharing opportunities for you to canvass, phonebank, and all the rest, every day now until the Election!

Remember, despair is completely unjustifiable. Every effort counts. Let’s stay engaged and make our voices heard!